Water Mill Luxury Real Estate Market Overview 2026

Sales in this report come from EastEndLI, together with recorded deeds.

Water Mill at a Glance

South of Montauk Highway, Water Mill runs from the village center down to Mecox Bay, the ponds and Flying Point. The core streets are Rose Hill Road, Cobb Road and Cobb Isle Road, Fordune Drive, Jule Pond Drive, Davids Lane, Halsey Lane and the lanes off Flying Point Road. This report covers that market only, at $5 million and above.

The Price Trend

The market has been steady rather than spiky. Volume peaked in 2025, with 25 sales, while the median held near $9 million. In 2026 the mix has moved up: six of the 16 sales so far are between $10 million and $20 million, and two are above $20 million. The 2026 figures will rise as late summer and fall closings are recorded.

Inland, Waterfront and Ocean

Inland is the volume market. It is mostly newer houses on one to three acres between the village and the bay. The top of that range now belongs to 127 Halsey Lane at $27.5 million (April 2026), 53 Fordune Drive at $24.6 million (September 2025) and 951 Flying Point Road at $22.5 million (May 2025).

Waterfront on Mecox Bay, Hayground Cove and the ponds roughly doubles the price. 180 Pointe Mecox Lane closed at $24 million (August 2023), 217 Rose Hill Road at $20.5 million (November 2025), and 120 Bay Lane, on Mecox Bay, at $12.625 million (May 2025). Hedgerow represented the seller at 120 Bay Lane and at 180 Rose Hill Road, pictured above.

Oceanfront in Water Mill almost never trades. The only oceanfront sale in this window was 1195 Flying Point Road at $14.5 million (October 2024). The village benchmarks sit just outside it:

• 90 Jule Pond Drive sold for $105 million in 2021. Hedgerow advised the seller.
• The four-parcel compound at 70 and 71 Cobb Lane on Mecox Bay traded for $121.5 million, and Hedgerow represented both sides.

Fall 2026: Inventory Versus Contracts

• Below $20 million, the market is tight. Thirteen listings sit against a pace of about 18 sales a year. The two contracts signed since September 1 both came from this range: 179 Davids Lane at a last ask of $15.995 million (October 5) and 25 Swans Neck Lane at $8.25 million (September 3).
• Above $20 million, the market is waiting. Thirteen listings, including 140 Hayground Cove Road at $68 million, ask a combined $436.9 million, or 78 percent of all asking dollars. Water Mill South has closed nine sales above $20 million since 2023, and none above $27.5 million.

Top Water Mill South Sales Since 2023

*Source: MLS listing data and recorded deeds. 200 Rose Hill Road appears in the recorded deeds only.* Hedgerow represented the seller at 180 Rose Hill Road.

For Buyers and Sellers

Below $20 million the market has been absorbing houses priced to the recent record. Above $20 million, thirteen listings ask most of the dollars against nine sales since 2023, none above $27.5 million. Bay or pond frontage roughly doubles the inland median. Several 2026 sales appear only in the deed record.

How These Figures Were Measured

• Area. Closed sales of $5 million and above in Water Mill, south of Montauk Highway, from January 3, 2023 through October 2, 2026. South of the highway was confirmed against the county parcel map. Waterfront means frontage on Mecox Bay, Hayground Cove or a pond. Packages count as one sale, and listings sold under more than one MLS number are counted once.
• What is included. The totals include eight vacant land sales. Commercial property is excluded.
• Sources. MLS listing data, checked against a full MLS sold search on October 11, 2026, and supplemented by recorded deeds for sales that did not appear in MLS. Where MLS and deed prices differ, the MLS price is used.
• Listings. Active listings reflect MLS listing data on October 10, 2026. Listings also offered as part of a larger package are counted once each. Contracts reflect MLS listing data through October 5, 2026.
• Limits. These figures do not include off-market trades that never appear in public MLS or deed records. Closings since late July may not yet appear in the deed record, so 2026 counts may rise.

FAQ

What is the median price of a luxury home in Water Mill?

Across 78 sales at $5 million and above south of the highway from January 2023 through early October 2026, the median was $9.45 million. In 2026 so far, it is $10.36 million across 16 sales.

What is the most expensive home sold in Water Mill recently?

127 Halsey Lane closed at $27.5 million in April 2026, the top Water Mill South sale since 2023. The village's benchmarks outside this window are 90 Jule Pond Drive at $105 million in 2021, and the 70 and 71 Cobb Lane compound at $121.5 million, where Hedgerow represented both sides.

How many luxury homes are for sale in Water Mill this fall?

As of October 10, 2026, there were 26 listings at $5 million and above south of the highway, asking a combined $560.1 million at a median of $19 million.

Is Water Mill a buyer's or seller's market?

Both, depending on price. Below $20 million, inventory is under a year of sales and the market leans to sellers. Above $20 million, there is about five years of supply at the recent pace, which gives buyers room.

Who is Barry McGovern?

Barry McGovern is a Licensed Real Estate Salesperson with Hedgerow Exclusive Properties, a boutique ultra-luxury Hamptons brokerage that has facilitated over $2 billion in transactions since 2020. More at hamptonshomes.ai/about.

Thinking About Water Mill?

Whether you are weighing a sale or looking for a house that may never reach the open market, I am glad to walk through what the record says about your street.

Related

• Water Mill town page
• Southampton Luxury Market Overview 2026
• Bridgehampton Luxury Market Overview 2026
• Sagaponack Luxury Market Overview 2026
• The Hamptons Fall 2026 Pipeline
• Hamptons Oceanfront, 2021 to 2026
• Recent Hedgerow Exclusive Sales

Images courtesy of Hedgerow Exclusive Properties.